Methodology / Conviction scoring
How AI conviction scoring works
Every TMIIE trade card carries a conviction score. Conviction is not a forecast of profit — it is a calibrated read on how many independent market signals currently agree with the proposed direction. We combine twelve signals across technical, macro, outcome, sentiment, and options-flow categories. Each signal can only lift or lower the score — none of them alone publish a card.
Conviction tiers
EXCEPTIONAL85 and upRare. Multiple signals aligned with no material contradiction.
STRONG75 – 84High-confidence setup. Most signals agree.
SOLID65 – 74Reasonable edge. A couple of signals may be mixed.
MODERATE55 – 64Thesis is present but edges are thin.
WATCHBelow 55Caught our attention, but we are not committing yet.
The twelve signals
Each signal either supports the direction (positive contribution) or contradicts it (negative contribution). The exact point values are proprietary and tuned continuously based on outcome data. Here is what each signal is and how it reads directionally.
Technical
Momentum (RSI)
Supports direction → RSI supports the proposed direction without being extreme — reading trends with room to run.
Contradicts direction → RSI is stretched against the direction or already pushed into overbought / oversold on the wrong side.
Trend (MACD)
Supports direction → MACD histogram is turning in the direction of the setup, with the signal line crossover confirming momentum.
Contradicts direction → MACD is flat, diverging from price, or crossing against the setup direction.
Short-term price action (EMA20)
Supports direction → Price sits on the correct side of the 20-day EMA for the proposed direction.
Contradicts direction → Price is on the wrong side of the 20-day EMA or the moving average is sloping against the setup.
Intermediate trend (EMA50)
Supports direction → Price and the 50-day EMA are aligned with the setup direction — longer-term trend support.
Contradicts direction → EMA50 is sloping against the direction or price is stretched far from it.
Multi-timeframe agreement
Supports direction → Daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes agree on direction — the setup is supported across horizons.
Contradicts direction → Shorter timeframe says one thing, higher timeframe says the opposite — disagreement is material.
Volume trend
Supports direction → Volume is expanding in the direction of the setup — participation is confirming the move.
Contradicts direction → Volume is contracting or expanding on counter-moves — participation is contradicting the thesis.
Target reachability (ATR)
Supports direction → Proposed targets and stops sit within realistic ATR-based ranges for the stated timeframe.
Contradicts direction → Targets are beyond what recent volatility can cover in the timeframe — asks too much too fast.
Macro
Macro regime fit
Supports direction → Current macro regime (risk-on / neutral / defensive) supports the direction of the setup.
Contradicts direction → Macro regime is tilting against the setup — the broader market isn’t providing tailwind.
Sector alignment
Supports direction → The sector the asset sits in is trending with the setup direction — sector breadth is confirming.
Contradicts direction → Sector is rotating against the direction — even if the individual asset looks clean, the tape says otherwise.
Outcome
Historical win rate
Supports direction → Similar setups on this asset have resolved profitably more often than not in recent months.
Contradicts direction → Recent similar setups have underperformed — the pattern isn’t converting historically.
Sentiment
News + sentiment
Supports direction → Recent news flow and social sentiment align with the direction or are at least neutral.
Contradicts direction → Recent negative news (earnings warning, regulatory, macro shock) is working against the direction.
Options
Options flow (when available)
Supports direction → Options positioning confirms the direction — e.g. call-side volume expansion on a long setup.
Contradicts direction → Options positioning contradicts the direction — e.g. heavy put buying on a long thesis.
After scoring
A score alone does not publish a card. The setup must still survive the quality gate — a separate validation pass that checks risk-to-reward, target reachability, and signal coherence.
Only setups that clear both the scoring threshold and the quality gate reach the daily brief.
Conviction scores are an analytical read, not a forecast of profit. A STRONG or EXCEPTIONAL score does not guarantee a winning trade. Read our full methodology & disclosures before acting on any setup.